Pakistan Goes For Militants’ Jugular

pakistan goes for militant's jugular_Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari can be well pleased with his recent visit to New York, securing US$1.5 billion annually for five years in non-military aid and gaining unprecedented political support from over two dozen heads of states under the Friends of Democratic Pakistan initiative.

Now it is the turn of the military to deliver following its successful campaign this year in the Swat Valley in North-West Frontier Province: it is poised for a major operation in the heart of Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda territory, the North Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan.

The need for this operation in the two Waziristans, over which the Pakistani armed forces had previously expressed grave concerns, was agreed on in a meeting in New York last week between the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other US security officials and Zardari, who is also the supreme commander of the armed forces.

The director general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, has been in the US to coordinate the operation with the US. The aim, simply, is to conclusively defeat al-Qaeda at its global headquarters in the Waziristans.

Adding urgency to task was the brazen attack on Monday by a suicide bomber dressed as a member of the paramilitary Frontiers Corps on the United Nations’ World Food Program’s headquarters in the capital Islamabad, killing at least five aid workers.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on Tuesday that the Taliban carried out the attack to avenge the August 5 killing in a US Predator drone missile attack in South Waziristan of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. “We should expect a few more [attacks],” he said.

Asia Times Online has learned that the operation in the Waziristans will be actively supported with technical and intelligence support from the CIA for Pakistani ground troops as well as the air force.

Pakistan is confident that the chances of success are higher than ever, even though the military will be venturing into dangerous territory and that previous operations in other tribal areas have proved highly divisive and unpopular across much of the country.

Malik told Asia Times Online recently in New York that the time was now ripe as it is believed all of the top al-Qaeda commanders of the South Asian region, in addition to commanders who have fled Iraq, are now based in the Waziristans.

The Pakistani political establishment is also upbeat in that there is a new positive mood in the country; even the stock exchange has surged to its highest levels in one-and-a-half-years. But most importantly, the tone in the military establishment has changed.

Immediately after the president’s return to Pakistan, armed forces spokesman Major General Athar Abbas, who had earlier rejected the idea of an operation in the Waziristans, speaking from the garrison city of Rawalpindi, confirmed that the tribal areas would be attacked.

“It [the operation] is only a matter of time, which of course, the military will not disclose or give any hint about.”

Abbas did hint hint, though. He said the weather could be one of the many factors that planners were taking into account – the winter snows are well set in by late November.

“The rudderless leadership of the terrorists provides an ideal opportunity to launch operations and inflict a severe blow to the terrorists,” Abbas said, presumably referring to the killing of Baitullah Mehsud.

The army has mounted several operations in the two Waziristans, but they have all resulted in heavy casualties. As a result, the military has tended to sign peace deals, most of them on the militants’ terms and conditions. This gave a morale boost to the militants, and after each operation their numbers increased, and numbers which were pumped into Afghanistan to aid the insurgency there.

This time, the stage is better set for the military. With the help of the CIA, many of al-Qaeda’s and the militants’ leaders have been eliminated, with drone attacks being particularly effective.

The military is also buoyed by its operation in Swat. In late April, the military began a massive offensive and by early June declared that most of Swat had been freed from the Taliban and that Mingora, the main town of Swat, was in complete government control. In the process, though, millions of people were displaced, causing a major humanitarian crisis. Ironically, the attack in Islamabad on Monday targeted the very United Nations organization that had helped with this tragedy.

The Swat operation also saw the military fully commit to its task – indeed, some say it displayed a level of ruthlessness not seen since its crackdown on Bengali separatists in the former East Pakistan, a struggle that led to the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.

This was so much so that several Western media outlets, including the British Broadcasting Corporation, have released videos of torture allegedly committed by the armed forced against the Taliban, including extra-judicial killings.

In addition to all this, however, is the key part played by the Pakistani Interior Ministry, which resolved that the best way to sap the strength of al-Qaeda and the militants lay in cutting their financial arteries.

This is not a novel approach to root out militancy, but one that has not successfully been implemented by Pakistan. Soon after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation targeted financial institutions and charities that supported al-Qaeda, with some success.

However, US institutions were unable to track the Taliban’s financial arteries as these are mostly primitive, based on non-banking and non-traditional financial sources and tribal connections. Asia Times Online has documented how difficult it is to disrupt this flow of money. (See How the Taliban keep their coffers full Asia Times Online, June 10.)

Interior Minister Malik recognized the problem, and tackled it head-on, first with Baitullah’s Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP – Taliban Movement of Pakistan).

In an interview in New York, Malik confidently claimed that over 80% of the financial arteries of the TTP and al-Qaeda’s funds coming from the Middle East had been blocked.

“The TTP’s approach was unique in all aspects and it could have been very hard to trace. First, the TTP gathered information from Mehsud tribal people living in the Middle East. They were mostly skilled and unskilled labors who sent money to their families through hundi [non-banking money transfers]. The TTP contacted these labors, individually, and warned them that a certain percentage of the money they sent to their families should be remitted to the TTP,” Malik said.

“We carefully studied the whole mechanism before we moved for a clampdown. The first thread of the strategy was the scanning and subsequent clampdown on illegal money transfers through hundi businesses. We studied all the business deals of the money exchange companies who were mostly involved in such transfers.

“Previously, Pakistan received US$3 billion to $4 billion [in remittances] through banking channels. After our operations on the money exchange companies, you will see that our [foreign exchange] reserves have soared [from $7 billion to $8 billion] to $14 billion to $15 billion as we have not left any choice to the remitters except to send their money through [regular] banking channels,” Malik said, implying that the money the country now received from remittances had doubled.

“However, in this broader operation, we traced a triangular syndicate based in Pakistan comprising al-Qaeda, the TTP and the jihadi organizations, like the Laskhar-e-Jhangvi. Sometimes they got financial support from Middle Eastern philanthropists. Our intelligence agencies tracked the whole mechanism of how the money traveled from one hand to the other, so, for instance, money aimed for al-Qaeda benefited the whole syndicate. This syndicate had so strongly knitted its financial arteries together that they [militants] were able to hire a fighter for $500 per month,” Malik said.

“After 9/11, security institutions tried to break down financial arteries. They spotted several institutions and successfully blocked their financial support. However, in the past few years, the dynamics of the money supply to those terror networks changed. They split themselves into segments and they developed a human chain network which could pass on cash from one hand to the other.

“In the past year, the situation became more complicated as the financial arteries feeding the insurgencies to this region and to Iraq were merged in our region,” Malik said, adding that it happened because after the US military operation in Iraq against al-Qaeda, all top al-Qaeda operators relocated in North Waziristan and South Waziristan.

Having begun the process of strangling the financial lifeblood of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Islamabad now feels it is in a position to go for the jugular with an all-out military offensive. In Pakistan’s eyes, this battle will be the start of the endgame. The militants might view it differently, as just the beginning of a real war. By Syed Saleem Shahzad, Asia Times.

US Troop Deaths Rise In Afghanistan

us troop deaths rise in afghanistan_Five US soldiers have been killed in three separate incidents in southern Afghanistan, the US military says.

Two were killed and a third soldier died of wounds sustained from a roadside bomb attack in the district of Zabul, the military said in a statement on Friday.

“Two members were killed and one died from wounds as a result of an improvised explosive device (IED) detonation,” Isaf said in a statement on Friday.

The fourth soldier died of wounds sustained during a separate attack in Zabul.

In a separate incident, in Nimroz province, a US marine was shot dead while on patrol, Elizabeth Mathias, a US military spokeswoman, said.

All the attacks took place on Thursday, the statement said.

Deadly encounters

The eight-year-old war in Afghanistan has been in its deadliest phase for foreign soldiers since July, when US and British forces launched their biggest offensives of the war.

There are now more than 100,000 Western soldiers in Afghanistan, about two-thirds of them American.

Stanley McChrystal, the most senior US army commander in Afghanistan, was expected to ask for thousands more troops in a request he will deliver to Washington this week.

He has said that without additional forces, his mission is likely to fail.

According to the independent icasualties website, which keeps a tally of military deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq, 371 foreign troops have died in Afghanistan so far this year, compared to 294 for all of 2008. Al Jazeera.

US Welcomes Iran Inspection Offer

us welcomes iran inspection offer_US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has given a cautious welcome to Iran’s announcement that it will open a newly revealed nuclear plant to inspection.

Speaking in New York, Mrs Clinton said it was always welcome when Iran decided to comply with international rules.

The US, France and UK accused Tehran of deception after it admitted to the existence of the facility on Monday.

Iran says the uranium enrichment plant, near the city of Qom, is in line with UN regulations. It maintains it wants atomic power only for the production of electricity.

But the revelations have raised tension ahead of next Thursday’s talks in Geneva between Iran and six global powers negotiating over Tehran’s atomic programme.

The Western powers are hoping to persuade Iran to freeze its uranium enrichment programme, but are threatening new sanctions if it fails to do so.

Russia has also indicated that it may support new sanctions. Low-enriched uranium can be used as fuel for power plants while highly enriched uranium can be used to make nuclear bombs.

Earlier Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the disclosure proved Iran wanted to equip itself with nuclear weapons” and that Israel wanted to see an “unequivocal” Western response to the development.

Iranian atomic energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi said on Saturday that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could visit the new site under Non-Proliferation Treaty rules.

‘Very hopeful’

Mrs Clinton said after meeting foreign ministers from Gulf countries: “It is always welcome when Iran makes a decision to comply with the international rules and regulations, and particularly with respect to the IAEA.

“We are very hopeful that, in preparing for the meeting on October 1, Iran comes and shares with all of us what they are willing to do and give us a timetable on which they are willing to proceed.”

The secretary of state’s remarks came hours after President Barack Obama said he remained open to “serious, meaningful dialogue” with Iran to resolve the issue. Failure to comply with inspectors could lead to tough international sanctions, he said.

On Friday, President Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown demanded that Iran allow UN inspectors into the second site.

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that Tehran had conformed to IAEA rules, by informing the agency about the site a year earlier than it needed to.

But BBC world affairs correspondent Paul Reynolds says there is a dispute about the amount of notice that Iran is required to give the IAEA before a new nuclear facility becomes operational.

In 2003, Iran agreed on what is called a Subsidiary Arrangement, under which it is required to tell the IAEA at the preliminary design stage.

Iran later announced that it had repudiated this agreement, but the IAEA says that no unilateral repudiation is allowed.

On Saturday, the chief of staff for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the second enrichment plant would “become operational soon”.

Meanwhile Iranian media reported that the elite Revolutionary Guards would start missile defence exercises on Sunday, in a move which seems guaranteed to increase tensions further. BBC News.

Afghan Fallout On Pakistan

afghan fallout on pakistan_There is a line in Lewis Caroll’s, Alice in Wonderland which is relevant to the situation in which the US-led coalition finds itself in Afghanistan: “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there”.

The core strategic objective that the US seeks to achieve has been defined by President Obama as, “disrupt, dismantle and defeat Al-Qaeda.” The question is if pursuing other goals are also necessary: fighting the Taleban and “nation building” in Afghanistan.  The choice for the West cannot be between cut and run from Afghanistan and an open-ended military engagement. Both are unfeasible and can be disastrous for the region.

An effort to pull out precipitously from Afghanistan would repeat the epic strategic error of the 1990s when the US abandoned that country to the chaos that in turn nurtured Al-Qaeda. But open ended military escalation risks trapping the West, in a Vietnam style quagmire: a war without end and no guarantee of success.

Pakistan’s stability has been gravely undermined by three decades of   strife in Afghanistan. The twin blowback from the Soviet invasion 30 years ago and the unintended consequences of the 2001 US military intervention has created unprecedented security, economic and social challenges for Pakistan.

Pakistan’s involvement in the long war to roll back the Russian occupation  bequeathed a witches brew of problems including militancy and a huge number of refugees, 2 million of whom remain in Pakistan. The 2001 intervention fuelled more militancy and ferment in the tribal areas.

Installing a government in Kabul dominated by an ethnic minority had similarly deleterious effects. As the Afghan war was increasingly pushed across the border into Pakistan and Islamabad took action in its frontier regions, militants turned their guns on the Pakistani security forces.

It is easy to understand in this backdrop how militancy on both sides of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is interconnected. But it is also distinct in origin, goals and magnitude.

The conflict is connected first by common bonds of tribe and ethnicity; second, by the broad appeal of ideology; third, by links to Al-Qaeda and four, by the two-way cross border movement of insurgents who provide each other a degree of mutual support.

It is also distinct because; one, the Afghan Taleban is an older and  more entrenched phenomenon with an organized   command and control structure. Two, the Taleban have geographically a much broader presence in Afghanistan compared to the Pakistani Taleban whose support base is confined to only part of the tribal areas, which constitute   just 3% of the country’s territory and represent 2% of the population. Three, they have greater confidence that they will prevail over a foreign force.

In contrast, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is a loose conglomeration of a dozen groups that primarily have local origins, motives, and ambitions. It lacks central command and control. Its core group led by Baitullah Mehsud has suffered a serious reversal by his death and the Pakistan military’s aggressive actions to blockade and contain his followers in South Waziristan.

Most importantly public sentiment in Pakistan has turned decisively against the TTP, leaving the organization in a position to launch periodic suicide missions, but not expand its influence. Without public backing the Pakistani Taleban are in no position to extend their sway.

But the continuing conflict in Afghanistan provides the TTP with its main motivation and legitimacy among its tribal support base.

Pakistan is in a better position than the coalition forces in Afghanistan to disrupt, contain and ultimately defeat its “Taleban” by building on the success of the recent operation in Swat and the tribal area of Bajaur. Within four months of the military being launched, the Taleban have been driven out of Malakand and the writ of the government has been re-established.

This shows that Pakistan has the capacity to deal with militancy, but without the compounding complications engendered by the fighting across its border. It underscores the most important lesson of counter insurgency: indigenous forces are better able to undertake successful missions.

On the Afghan side, the US and coalition forces will face greater difficulties against the insurgency especially if the present strategy remain unchanged and when a fraud-stricken Presidential election in Afghanistan has denuded the country of a legitimate government. One response being proposed in the US to this dire situation is a substantial surge of military forces. But to what end, at what cost and with what chances of success?  History shows that the Soviet Union deployed 140,000 troops at the peak of its occupation but failed to defeat the resistance.

Al Qaeda can only be neutralized in Afghanistan and in the border region with Pakistan if it is rejected by and ejected from the Taleban “sea” in which it survives. This urges a strategy to separate the two movements by military, political and other means.

Military escalation will push the two closer and strengthen rather than erode their links.

There are three possible scenarios for what could happen in Afghanistan:

1) Military escalation: This will inevitably be directed at the Taleban and will   evoke even more hostility from the country’s Pashtun dominated areas and closer cooperation between Al-Qaeda and the Taleban thereby further impeding the core objective of eliminating ?Al Qaeda.

Although the Taleban do not represent all Pashtuns, they do exploit Pashtun grievances and use the foreign presence as a recruitment tool.

If history is a guide in this graveyard of empires, a military solution is also unlikely to succeed for several reasons:

i) The enhanced military forces will still be insufficient to ‘hold’ the countryside: independent estimates suggest that the Taleban now have a permanent presence in over 70% of Afghanistan. If Moscow with 140,000 troops supported by a more professional Afghan army of 100,000 could not succeed against the Mujahideen, why should it be any different now?

ii)  Escalation will inevitably lead to mounting European/American casualties, which will erode further public support in the West. The insurgents can absorb higher losses and fight on. Pakistan has incurred 7,500 casualties among its security personnel (dead and injured). Can western forces envision such heavy losses and sustain ?public support?

iii)  The economic cost of the war will also escalate. Will Western Parliaments pre-occupied with economic recovery agree indefinitely to defray the growing costs of an unending Afghan war?

iv)      Escalation will likely intensify rivalries among the neighboring powers in a region where a subterranean competition is already in play. Pakistan’s concerns about India’s role in Afghanistan are well known.

As for the impact on Pakistan, further military escalation on its border is fraught with great risk. The threat of instability will grow not diminish, for many reasons.

i)  It will likely lead to an influx of militants and Al-Qaeda fighters into Pakistan and an arms flow from across the border.

ii)  Enhance the vulnerability of US-NATO ground supply routes through the country as supply needs will likely double. This will create what military strategists call the “battle of reverse front.” Protecting these supply lines will also over stretch Pakistani troops.

iii) It could lead to an influx of more Afghan refugees, especially destabilizing in Balochistan.

iv) A surge in Afghanistan can produce a spike in violent reprisals in mainland Pakistan.

v) Intensified fighting and its fallout could erode and unravel the fragile political consensus in Pakistan to fight militancy.

Maleeha Lodhi served as Pakistan’s ?ambassador to the United States and the United Kingdom. By Dr Maleeha Lodhi, Khaleej Times.

A Nuclear Iran: The World Was Warned

a nuclear iran_Good morning, World, Iran is ready to go nuclear! A uranium enrichment facility nobody knew of suddenly emerges in the sacred city of Qom, Iran launches missiles that can threaten not only U.S. targets in the Persian gulf, but also Israel and southern Europe, and now the world panics.

Surprised? Not if you’re an Israeli. For years we have been sounding the alarm, only to be told to stop crying wolf. Now we are asked to lie low and let the responsible leaders of the world take care of the situation.

In 1993, when I was the spokesman of the Israeli government, my boss, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, made a dramatic turn in his hitherto coherent perception about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Contrary to his previous declarations, that the PLO was not a credible partner for peace, Rabin unexpectedly gave his blessing — albeit half-heartedly — to the Oslo process.

I was curious to find out what made him change his mind. He was not a man of elaborate explanations. Sometimes you just had to guess from his body language what made him tick. It was in the middle of an interview when a European journalist mentioned Iran in passing, that Rabin banged the table and said in a coarse voice: “Exactly!” The rest came out during a later interview: We have to mend fences with our closer neighbors (the Palestinians and Jordanians), Rabin said, so that we can brace ourselves to tackle the bigger challenge rising over the horizon: Iran.

Taking the cue from Rabin, I started to talk to the representatives of the world media based in Jerusalem about the Iranian nuclear threat. I told them that it was not an Israeli issue only, that a Shiite Iran with nukes would cause havoc in the Sunni Mideast, with serious repercussions for the rest of the world.

The response was usually shoulder shrugging, glazed eyes and insinuations that Israel was trying to lure the United States into attacking Iran for Israel’s interests. In short, the tail was trying to wag the dog.

I had to remind them that in 1981, when Israel attacked the Iraqi nuclear reactor, it had been condemned right and left, with the United Nations ruling that Israel should pay compensation to Iraq. Ten years later, in the wake of Desert Storm, then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney gave a photograph of the bombed reactor to Maj. Gen. David Ivry, who commanded the Israeli Air Force during the attack, on which he wrote, “With thanks and appreciation for the outstanding job [you] did on the Iraqi Nuclear Program in 1981 which made our job much easier in Desert Storm.”

It’s not that we Israelis are smarter than anybody else, or that we are blessed with a unique talent to foresee the future. It’s just that whenever there has been a threat to the free world we have been there first, on the frontline, on the receiving end. Not willing ever to surrender to the threat, we came up with our original responses.

When the first Israeli airliner was hijacked to Algiers in 1968, we made El Al the world’s safest airline. When Israelis were hijacked while flying Air France, we launched the Entebbe Raid to rescue them.

When Palestinian terrorists blew themselves up in the midst of our cities, we built a security fence that stopped them. Israel bashers condemned us for creating the barrier, which made life difficult for the Palestinians. Yet now, in hindsight, will they admit that life comes before quality of life?

And when our enemies started launching rockets at our cities, while hiding themselves among civilians, we were not intimidated: we went after them, trying to sort the villain from the innocent. We were heavily criticized for the way we did it, we still are: This is a very messy task indeed.

Yet Western soldiers and officers fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the people who have sent them to the battlefield, all know perfectly well that we have spearheaded a path for them; that we have shown a way where democracies can walk the thin line between keeping human rights and fighting terror effectively.

One day, when the weight of terror will become unbearable, the rest of the world will maybe understand as well. By Uri Dromi, The Miami Herald.

Illegal Attack By Georgia Launched War With Russia

illegal attack by georgia_An illegal military attack by Georgia on its breakaway region of South Ossetia triggered last year’s war with Russia, an international report said yesterday.

Russia was also guilty of breaking international law by invading deep into Georgian territory in response to the attack, the European Union-backed investigation into the causes of the five-day conflict concluded.

The report deals a severe blow to Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili, who has repeatedly argued that he ordered troops into South Ossetia as a defensive action in response to a Russian invasion. Moscow insisted that it sent forces to South Ossetia to repel a Georgian attack.

The nine-month inquiry led by a Swiss diplomat, Heidi Tagliavini, said that the war was triggered by “a large-scale Georgian military operation” against the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali late on August 7, adding: “Operations started with a massive Georgian artillery attack.”

Ms Tagliavini said in a written statement: “None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation.”

Her inquiry rejected as not “sufficiently substantiated” Georgian claims of a Russian incursion into South Ossetia prior to the outbreak of the war. But it noted “an influx of volunteers or mercenaries” into South Ossetia from Russia and said that some Russian troops were in the war zone earlier than the Kremlin had claimed.

The Russian air force also bombed targets in Georgia hours before Moscow said that it had begun military operations at 2.30pm on August 8.

The inquiry concluded: “There is the question of whether the use of force by Georgia in South Ossetia, beginning with the shelling of Tskhinvali during the night of 7/8 August 2008, was justifiable under international law. It was not.

“It follows from the illegal character of the Georgian military assault that South Ossetian defensive action in response did conform to international law in terms of legitimate self-defence.”

The report said that there was also no justification for Georgian attacks on Russian peacekeeping forces based in South Ossetia. It went on: “There was no ongoing armed attack by Russia before the start of the Georgian operation. Georgian claims of a large-scale presence of Russian armed forces in South Ossetia prior to the Georgian offensive on 7/8 August could not be substantiated. It could also not be verified that Russia was on the verge of such a major attack.

“Consequently, the use of force by Georgia against Russian peacekeeping forces in Tskhinvali in the night of 7/8 August 2008 was contrary to international law.”

The inquiry condemned Russia’s response to the fighting, however, as going “far beyond the reasonable limits of defence”. It said that the Kremlin broke international law in justifying its actions and in recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia’s other breakaway region, as independent states after the war.

Initial Russian defensive actions in South Ossetia were legal, but subsequent military occupation of large parts of Georgia – tanks came within 25 miles of the capital Tbilisi – was not “even remotely commensurate” with the threat posed to its peacekeepers.

Russia’s invasion broke international law and continued destruction of Georgian territory after a ceasefire negotiated by President Sarkozy of France “was not justifiable by any means”. The report added: “In a matter of a very few days, the pattern of legitimate and illegitimate military action had thus turned around between the two main actors Georgia and Russia… It must be concluded that the Russian military action outside South Ossetia was essentially conducted in violation of international law.”

The report rejected the Kremlin’s assertion that it had acted in defence of Russian citizens in South Ossetia, most of whom hold Russian passports. It said that people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia remained Georgian citizens under international law and it condemned Russia’s “passportisation” policy as “an open challenge to Georgian sovereignty and an interference in the internal affairs of Georgia”.

The inquiry described Russian claims that Georgia was committing “genocide” against South Ossetians as “neither founded in law nor substantiated by factual evidence”. It noted that Russia reduced to 162 its initial claim that 2,000 South Ossetians had been killed by Georgian troops.

It accused Georgian and Russian soldiers as well as South Ossetian militias of committing atrocities that amounted to “war crimes”. But the similarity of weapons used by all sides made it difficult to attribute responsibility for particular acts.

The report condemned Russia for failing to control South Ossetian irregulars who it said were guilty of ethnic cleansing of Georgian villagers from their homes in the conflict zone. Georgia’s use of Grad missiles and cluster munitions in its night attack on Tskhinvali amounted to “indiscriminate attacks” on the civilian population.

While Georgia’s attack on Tskhinvali marked the start of the war, the inquiry said that it “was only the culminating point of a long period of increasing tensions, provocations and incidents” involving Russia and separatist leaders in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Assessments of the war had to consider “a great power’s coercive politics and diplomacy against a small and insubordinate neighbour, together with the small neighbour’s penchant for overplaying its hand and acting in the heat of the moment without careful consideration of the final outcome”.

The Kremlin welcomed the report. Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, said: “It confirms what we’ve know all along – who started the war and who bears responsibility.”

Georgia insisted that the inquiry proved that Moscow had been plotting a war for a long time. Temuri Yakobashvili, Georgia’s Minister for Reintegration, said: “The report proves that Russia was all the time preparing this war and August 7 and 8 were the culmination. The report is not about who started the war; the war did not start on August 7 or 8.”

The inquiry said that Georgia reported 228 civilians killed and 184 soldiers dead or missing in the war. Russia said that 64 of its troops died and 162 South Ossetian civilians.

More than 100,000 people became refugees during the conflict. Several thousand South Ossetians remain homeless and some 25,000 Georgians have been unable to return to South Ossetia. By Tony Halpin, The Times.

Himalayan Conflict Centres On Tibet

himalayan conflict centres on tibet_A resurgent dispute over an Indian state that China claims as its own is threatening to explode into a bloodier fight. There is perhaps no country more feared and less understood in India than China. In recent weeks Delhi newspapers and television have been awash with stories about the People’s Liberation Army crossing the Himalayas to daub rocks with Chinese characters, making daredevil helicopter raids to drop (stale) tinned food on hapless farmers and trading fire with Indian soldiers.

India’s Kashmir state government, apparently, said its territory was being taken “inch by inch” through such incursions. Ominously, authorities last week in Kolkata impounded a plane carrying arms from the Middle East to China.

While the foreign ministries in both countries play down the reports, there are concerns that left unchecked, things could spiral out of control.

The spat began in June. Chinese bloggers vented their fury when India abruptly announced that it would be sending 60,000 troops to bolster tens of thousands of soldiers to Arunachal Pradesh – an Indian state that Beijing claims as its own. One online poll in China claimed that 90% of respondents thought Delhi’s actions posed a “threat”.

At the heart of this dispute lies the Tibetan question. Historically, China says Arunachal Pradesh’s 35,000 square miles was part of “outer Tibet”. In a short bloody war, Chinese troops overran Indian positions in the Himalayas in 1962 before retreating. Since then the two sides have tried to discuss their way out of a problem. More than dozen rounds of talks have yielded little.

For years the dispute has rumbled on, attracting little international attention. However, that changed this summer with the arrival of fresh troops – and an Indian airforce squadron of advanced fighters – which analysts say were needed to cope with China’s rising military might, especially in Tibet.

The Indian defence magazine Force points out that the PLA could mobilise four divisions – about 50,000 men – in 24 hours to the Sino-Indian border. “Awesome military projection capability by any standards,” says the magazine in its latest edition.

To get a taste of how difficult things might be for India, in a diplomatic first, China “internationalised” the issue of Arunachal Pradesh, highlighting its disputed status in July. Beijing formally objected to a $60m loan for India because it would fund irrigation projects in Arunachal Pradesh. Although the loan was later approved, Chinese experts say there is still “room to change” the project.

Arunachal Pradesh has been slowly integrated into the Indian state since Delhi sent troops in 1950 carrying papers signed by the Tibetan government in Lhasa, which transferred 35,000 square miles of the Himalayas to India. Beijing rejects Delhi’s claim, saying the region was subject to a crafty piece of real estate theft by British imperialists in 1914 when China was in chaos.

A solution has always been in sight: Beijing relinquishes its claim to Arunachal Pradesh and Delhi gives up its demand for 15,000 square miles of stragetically important Chinese-held mountainous land bordering Kashmir.

But Arunachal Pradesh for China is not just a territorial issue but an existential one. The state is home to the town of Tawang, birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama, where Tibetan Buddhism’s biggest monastery, after the Potala palace in Lhasa, sits.

Tawang is also the repository of perhaps the last vestige of a Tibet submerged by China’s rise – sustaining the idea of religious freedom for the diaspora and keeping alive a centuries-old culture and language. In conversation, the Monpa people who dominate the local area will tell visitors that Tawang could be Tibetan Buddhism’s new Rome, a base from where to spread the faith.

China is alarmed by such talk. Beijing sees Tawang not as a place of serenity but as a spiritual spy camp – ultimately challenging the ruling Communist party’s control in Tibet. These feelings were heightened when the Indian government said this week it would allow the Dalai Lama to travel to Tawang, adding he was “free to go anywhere in India”.

The present Tibetan leader has not been a regular visitor to the town. He passed through when he fled Tibet in 1959 but he has only been allowed back twice since: once in 1982 and then again 2003. This time around he will open a hospital he funded.

The Indian backing to the Dalai Lama comes at a critical time. The Obama administration said this week that the president would not meet the Tibetan leader during his upcoming trip to Washington – a break with tradition. George Bush and Bill Clinton met the Dalai Lama when he arrived in the American capital. Afraid that the White House was now kowtowing to Beijing before the president’s visit this November to China, Tibet’s government in exile openly said even the US was now “appeasing” China. This is a breakthrough for China – which is unafraid of criticising any head of state for meeting the Dalai Lama, who they see as a man determined to “split the motherland”. So far 170 countries out of 193 in the United Nations have acceded to China’s demands.

This leaves India in a difficult, lonely position. It already sees Chinese ports and military bases strung across the Indian Ocean – the so called “string of pearls” strategy designed to check Indian influence in its backyard. Delhi has been outbid for vital oil and gas resources by its bigger, richer neighbour. On most measures of hard power – number of nuclear weapons, economic size, population – India lags behind.

China is not afraid to flex its muscles: it blocked India’s bid for a UN security council place and tried to shoot down a groundbreaking US-India nuclear deal.

Delhi says it is in the nature of development for the two large Asian nations to compete and co-operate for resources, cash and technology. China is India’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade volumes crossing $50bn in 2008. The two countries, which are both home to millions of poor people, have worked together in trade and climate change – fending off advances from the advanced nations.

For both, Tibet makes it easier to be antagonists rather than collaborators. Unless both manage to work together to resolve their differences there is a chance the two populations will get bogged down in adversarial nationalism. The media war could then explode into bloodier conflict on the roof of the world. By Randeep Ramesh, The Guardian.